What factors are influencing the global contract logistics market
The global contract logistics market is showing an excellent rate of recovery. This has led analysts to revise their forecasts for 2024 upwards.
Industry outlook for 2023
Transport Intelligence’s 2023 report shows that the contract logistics market reached almost €284 billion. This represents a growth of 3.5% compared to the previous period. It is worth noting that the valuation of the global sector was 12% higher than the pre-pandemic figures. Looking at the dynamics over several years, the worst period was 2020. Then, the market fell, but in 2021, it grew by 8%.
The results in 2023 exceeded analysts’ expectations. Despite earlier predictions of a slowdown in the sector, the market showed steady growth.
According to the report, the market continued to be under pressure from global factors last year, including:
- geopolitical conflicts;
- high inflation rates;
- rising energy and fuel prices.
In the second half of the year, the impact of these factors weakened, allowing the sector to adjust. Experts note that contract logistics continues to operate in difficult economic conditions. This is one of the limits to market development.
The main growth stimulus has been the increased activity in the e-commerce sector. Government support has also had a positive effect. This has contributed to the market’s sustainability during the period of rising fuel prices.
Overview of trends by region
Europe has been in a state of economic slowdown for several years now, which has impacted logistics activities. At the same time, the trends in Asia and North America are the opposite. Regionally, the situation is as follows:
- APAC has taken the lead with a 39-40% share of the total market value;
- Europe accounts for 28-29%;
- North America accounts for 25%.
While Asia’s momentum is growing rapidly, other regions are virtually stagnating. The key markets in the Asia-Pacific region are Japan and China. They are showing excellent results in the context of the economic recovery.
Forecast for 2024
Given the positive results in 2023, analysts are optimistic about the current period. They expect the market to grow by 4.2% to €296 billion, up from the previous forecast of 3.7%.
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to lead the way. Its growth rate will exceed 6%. In Europe and North America, growth will be in the range of 1.5-1.9%. Despite these dynamics, the regions will continue to develop, albeit slowly.
The global contract logistics market will grow at an average rate of 4.1% until 2028. By the end of the forecast period, the sector will be worth almost €348 billion.
