The price of imported goods will increase by about 10%
The UN has analyzed trends in trade turnover on the global market. Problems with logistics, disruption of delivery chains have led to significant changes that negatively affect both buyers and sellers. Experts predict that the price of imported goods will increase by more than 10% worldwide.
Intense economic recovery has led to increased demand for logistics services. This, in turn, led to an increase in tariffs for container transportation, as well as the problem of delivery. Consequences of this situation have been felt by all countries, but it is particularly acute for island countries with developing economies, which depend on sea transport. Analysts also note that the high cost of logistics services has already affected the U.S. and European markets.
Disruptions in global supply chains are expected to continue at best until the end of this year. If freight rates increase in 2023 as well, then import prices will rise by an average of 10.6%. At the same time, small island states should prepare for a serious increase in cost – by about 24%. Consumer prices will show an increase of about 7.5%.
Such trends will have a negative impact on global trade and will hamper economic recovery. Despite the fact that the main blow will fall on the states with a developing market, for the USA and the European Union the increase in container transportation rates threatens to reduce industrial production at the level of 1%. The biggest rate increase will be for goods from East Asia, which are shipped to North America and Europe. Among these products are computers, optics and electronics.
The growth of freight rates goes to the advantage of large transport companies. For example, if in Q1 2020 their operating profit was $1.6 billion, for the same period in 2021 the figure rose to $27.1 billion. Annual profits reached $100 billion, and these figures were not affected by delivery problems, the pandemic and a number of restrictions.
The cost to ship a 40-foot container is now $9,146, an increase of 238% over the same period in 2020. The increase peaked in October 2021, when rates reached $10,377. At this point, the WCI composite average is $4,724 more than the 5-year average. Moreover, the price for the container transportation is even higher at the most popular destinations, for example on the China-Europe route. Here the price for a 40-foot container is up to 17 thousand dollars.
