What the global courier market can expect: the forecast of analysts
The company Transport Intelligence has made a forecast according to which by the end of this year the market for courier services will increase by 9%. Despite the fact that the segment will continue to grow in the future, the growth rate will decrease. For comparison, in 2021 the market showed an increase of 12.2%, and in 2020 – by 13%.
It should be noted that last year is considered extremely successful for the segment. It ranked second in terms of growth in 10 years and reached a mark of more than 462 billion euros. In the current year, such results should not be expected, as there are strong global factors limiting the development of the market. These include rising inflation and geopolitical conflicts. In 2021 there were favorable conditions for market development, for example, the severe restrictions imposed during the pandemic were lifted. In addition, there was a record increase in volumes in the e-commerce sector, which also contributed to the development of courier services. For example, in 2021, domestic markets grew by 11.4%, with a value of 371 billion euros. As for international deliveries, there was a growth of almost 16%, but the value was lower – about 91 billion euros.
If we consider the development of the market in terms of geography, the largest region last year was the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for almost 39% of total volumes. In second place was North America with 35% and Europe with 22%. Overall, six of the nine world regions saw a twofold increase in value, but the leaders of the list had a much better dynamic than the rest.
According to analysts’ forecasts, this year we should expect growth in the range of 9%, and the value of the market will reach more than 503 billion euros. A slowdown is expected in both the domestic and international sectors.
The Asia-Pacific region will show an increase of 9.2%, and North America will be ahead with 9.9%. As for Europe, this market lags far behind the previous two, with an increase of about 7%. The decrease in the dynamics in this region is primarily due to the geopolitical confrontation on its territory. The conflict exerts the strongest pressure on all sectors, including courier services.
Previously, Transport Intelligence analysts noted that from 2021 to 2025, the market will grow by an average of 7.7%. At the same time, the rate of development of the segment by 2025 will approach the indicators before the impact of the pandemic, but they will probably not be able to reach the results of 2020-2021.
