What challenges affect global air freight transport
Global air freight transport showed steady growth in 2024, and analysts predict that this trend will continue in 2025. Experts cite the ongoing e-commerce boom as a key driver of the sector’s development. However, the industry may also face threats that will slow market growth.
Demand from e-commerce provides stability to the aviation sector. Peak seasons, when demand for services grows rapidly, have had a positive impact on the dynamics. However, the good results of 2024 should not distract the sector’s representatives from the limiting factors. These include:
- capacity constraints;
- a reduction in the cargo capacity of single-aisle aircraft;
- a shortage of wide-body aircraft.
The shortage of vehicles has been particularly acute on the most popular routes. It has reduced the ability of several companies, especially smaller ones, to provide services.
By the end of 2024, demand for air travel had increased by 10%. At the same time, the sector has grown for 13 consecutive months. Capacity increased by only 2%. As a result, load factors rose to 63%, the highest level in two and a half years. Average spot rates increased by 22%.
Regional analysis
Europe felt the full impact of the reduction in cargo aircraft supply. It was particularly noticeable during the winter season, traditionally a peak season for operators. European companies have been able to optimise processes in some way, which has helped to reduce costs. Imports from the Middle East remain an important destination. Due to the problems in the Red Sea, demand for air services has considerably increased. Operators have also benefited from the decline in demand for sea transport.
Asia showed excellent results in 2024, and analysts expect the same momentum to continue in 2025. The region recorded double-digit growth on routes to Europe, particularly from North Asia. At the same time, higher transport tariffs and capacity issues have not had a significant impact on demand. However, the new tariffs announced by the US could be a limiting factor. So far, the tariff changes have not had a noticeable impact on the high demand for services.
The reduction in capacity has been felt strongly in the US. A key reason for this in the region has been congestion in South America. Diverted routes from the EU to the AML region were an additional factor. Strikes at Canadian ports compounded the problem. These boosted the demand for air services.
Analysts predict a 5.8% increase in global air traffic, which will likely total 72.5 million tonnes. The development of e-commerce in Asia will be a key driver of growth.
