Maritime logistics and alternative fuels: a report
Achieving environmental goals requires significant changes in many areas. In logistics, however, the transition to alternative fuels has been prolonged. Statistics show that only 2% of ships can be considered ‘green’.
The new ships entering service in 2023-2024 represent today’s environmental standards. They are more energy efficient and potentially less polluting than ships of previous years. However, as the DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050 report points out, switching all maritime logistics to sustainable fuels will be very expensive. This complicates and slows down the process of mass decarbonisation. According to the experts, shipping costs for companies will increase significantly by 2050:
- shipping costs for bulk carriers will increase by 69-70 per cent;
- tanker costs will increase by 70-86 per cent;
- container transport will become more expensive by 91-112%.
The forecast’s authors expect these costs to get passed on to end consumers. It will affect the cost of goods and services. In addition, it is still very early to talk about complete decarbonisation. According to the analysis, the demand for alternative fuels will be between 9 and 55 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2030. This figure depends on the level of energy efficiency.
In 2024, the global production of green fuels will be 44-62 Mtoe. However, this is not enough to meet the needs of maritime transport.
Overview of the situation in the sector
An analysis of the situation in the maritime logistics sector shows that the rate of transition to green fuels remains low. In July 2024, only 7.4% of the global fleet was using alternative fuels. When it comes to ordering new ships, the dynamics are better. More than 49% of their gross tonnage will use green raw materials. In 2023, 6.5% of ships will be operating on them. And the share of new green ships is more than 51%. While the data show an increase in the rate of transition to decarbonisation, overall progress remains slow.
Excluding tonnage, the picture is different. Only 2% of ships in the world fleet use alternative fuels, compared to 27% of new orders. As a result, 98% of the world’s shipping tonnage and 73% of ships under construction are still powered by conventional fuels.
It is worth noting that the actual rate of conversion to cleaner fuels is even slower. Most ships equipped with alternative engines use low-carbon fuels. However, these fuels are still considered fossil fuels.
Recently, there has been a demand for dual-fuel systems. In most cases, the second fuel is liquefied gas. In an analysis, experts found that 30% of the world’s fleet generates about 80% of carbon dioxide emissions. At the same time, there is a growing demand for transport that runs on methanol as an alternative.
