Air freight volumes have fallen globally
IATA provided a report showing that in January 2023, global air freight traffic declined by 14.9%. Compared to the same period in 2019, a decline of 11% was recorded.
The most significant drop in demand for air freight was seen in Europe, where air freight volumes fell by 20.4%. In Asia-Pacific, the decline was 19%. Air freight in North America decreased by 8.7 per cent, a drop of almost 12 per cent in the Middle East. Only Latin America recorded an increase of 4.6% in demand for air delivery.
Experts attribute this dynamic to the difficulties the global market faces at the beginning of 2023. However, a positive development for the air freight sector can be seen in the relaxation of China’s COVID-19 policy. An increase in production rates is expected to stimulate the logistics industry.
Analysts note that the market stands a good chance of recovering air freight volumes by the end of 2023. In addition, the outlook for the passenger sector is also good. The opening of international flights by China aids the latter. However, a shortage of new aircraft still needs to be solved, limiting the growth of traffic dynamics.
Avolon analyst forecast
According to analysts at Avolon, one of the largest airfreight rental companies, Asia will be the primary driver of air travel this year. While traffic in North America and European countries increased to 70% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022, removing restrictions on flights to China should be a good boost in the current period.
It should be noted that previously experts expected the industry to recover fully by 2024. However, the abolition of the coronavirus intolerance policy has improved forecasts. International flight bookings increased at the beginning of the year: from the end of December 2022 to January 2023, their number increased by 192% compared to the previous period.
A promising sign for the sector is that Chinese airlines are expanding their staff and updating their flight schedules, which have been virtually nonexistent for three years since 2019.
Despite the optimistic sentiment, the limiting factor for increased air traffic is delays in producing new aircraft. Aircraft manufacturers are expanding aircraft production to meet rising demand, but there is still a supply shortage. This situation may reduce forecasts of passenger traffic recovery and provoke an increase in airfare. Many low-cost carriers have already announced increases in ticket prices and cancellation of special promotions, such as flights for €1 or €10.
